The chart in Fig. 8 is a complex one that depicts the revenue forecast for packaged LEDs relative to specific sub-segments of the lighting market. While we regularly write about — and presentations at conferences such as SIL support — the premise that LEDs will fundamentally change the lighting market, presumably the bulb form will begin to disappear in favor of luminaires with integral LEDs or modular SSL engines. And these new luminaires will truly leverage the compact size of LED light sources and the ability to distribute LEDs in arrays to cover large areas. Examples of revolutionary new designs include the planar fixtures based on light guides that are edge lit with LEDs.
LEDs may indeed yet revolutionize lighting product design. But Fig. 8 makes it clear that through 2018 the replacement lamp will be the most widely deployed lighting product consuming LEDs. The graph tells an interesting story. Lamps trailed the aggregate luminaire segment in 2013, although the overall lamps LED revenue was an impressive $1.5B. But soon lamps will account for half of the LED revenue for components sold into lighting. Ironically, socket saturation will happen in the lamps space toward the end of the projection window, and once again luminaires will become the larger sub-segment for LED revenues.
It is worth noting that the replacement lamps segment includes products sold into both residential and commercial applications. Strategies Unlimited includes LED-based linear tubes in the category, for example, and those products target industrial and commercial applications. Likewise, the MR16 sub-segment is mostly based on business customers whereas A-lamps are more prominent in residential applications.